Blog Post

Upset Specials Part 2: The Underdogs That Pulled It Off

Patrick Barlow • Oct 08, 2022

In part 1 of this series, I looked at which teams were upset the most. In the end, the Oregon Ducks were crowned the Most Overrated Team. Now it's time to look at everyone's favorite teams: the underdogs that pulled it off.


Once again, I'll show you the data in 2 ways. First, I'll show which teams have pulled off the most upsets in total. Second, I'll show which teams have the best Upset %, which is the % of times they pulled off the upset when in a position to do so. I'll also filter out teams that have been underdogs fewer than 20 times for 1998+ data and 6 times for 2014+ data.


In part 1, I defined an upset as a game in which:

  • an unranked opponent beats a ranked opponent, or
  • a ranked opponent beats an opponent ranked more than 2 spots higher than them (for example, #4 over #1 is an upset, but #3 over #1 is not)
I will continue to use this definition. I'm also still using only the AP Poll. With that, let's look at the underdogs.

Total Upsets

Since 1998, there have been 6,335 games that could have ended in an upset. I will call these games "upsettable". 1,301 have ended in an upset, or approximately 20.5% of them. Since 2014, there have been 2,207 upsettable games, with 21.4% of them ending in an upset.

Teams with the Most Total Upsets since 1998

Team Upsets Chances Upset %

Teams with the Most Total Upsets since 2014

Team Upsets Chances Upset %

8 Teams appear on both lists: Stanford, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas, and Oklahoma State. These 8 teams have been consistently pulling off upsets since at least 1998. Surprisingly, 5 of those teams are also on the list for most times being upset: Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, Texas, and Oklahoma State. Part of the reason for this may be knee-jerk voter reactions. In other words, these teams will pull off an upset, jump high in the polls, then lose because they weren't actually deserving of their ranking.


LSU comes in at #3 in Most Upsets since 2014 and tied for #2 since 1998. They also come in #1 in Most times being Upset since 2014 and #4 since 1998. The Tigers must be true fans of chaos.


While total upsets is fun to look at, Upset % is a better stat.

Upset %

10 Teams with the Best Upset % since 1998

Team Upset % Chances Upsets

10 Teams with the Best Upset % since 2014

Team Upset % Chances Upsets

While LSU was #3 in Most Upsets since 2014 and tied for #2 since 1998, we see here they are #2 and #1 in Upset % in those same timeframes. Only 2 teams are on both lists with the aforementioned Tigers of LSU being joined by Miami. Miami, however, is being trailed tightly by TCU since 2014. By the end of this year, LSU may sit as the lone crossover between these 2 lists.


Not every team is good at pulling off the upset. We saw in Part 1 that some teams simply don't get upset very much at all, such as Cincinnati and Alabama. Let's take a glance at the teams living up to their lower/non-ranking.

10 Teams with the Worst Upset % since 1998

Team Upset % Chances Upsets
*This list only includes teams who have had at least 20 upset chances with at least 2 upsets

10 Teams with the Worst Upset % since 2014

Team Upset % Chances Upsets
*This list only includes teams who have had at least 10 upset chances with at least 1 upset

These lists are probably similar to what you expected to see. A couple of notable standouts include Cincinnati, who evidently doesn't pull off upsets or get upset, and Nebraska. The Huskers have fallen off dramatically recently. From 1998-2013, they were 9-27 in upsettable games, a fairly pedestrian 25%. That number has dropped to ~9% since 2014 though.


Upsets are always fun to watch. Unless your team is on the losing end, of course. But there are 2 types of upsets that just have a little extra excitement: upsets by unranked teams and upsets over Top 5 opponents.

Unranked Upsets

For these lists, 3 columns are shown. Unranked is the number of times they won as an unranked team. Total is the total number of times they won. Unranked % is the % of upsets in which they were unranked.

Most Unranked Upsets since 1998

Team Unranked Total Unranked %

Most Unranked Upsets since 2014

Team Unranked Total Unranked %

As expected, several teams appear on both lists. Virginia's Unranked % stands out. Since 1998, Virginia has pulled off 20 upsets. They were unranked in all 20. Arizona is similar, with 17/18 coming as an unranked team.

Top 5 Upsets

For these lists, 3 columns are shown. Top 5 is the number of times they upset a Top 5 opponent. Total is their total number of upsets. Top 5 % is the % of upsets in which they defeated a Top 5 team.

Most Top 5 Upsets since 1998

Team Unranked Total Unranked %

Most Top 5 Upsets since 2014

Team Top 5 Total Top 5 %

To perhaps nobody's surprise, it generally takes the best to beat the best, with teams such as Alabama, Ohio State, and Florida leading the way. The biggest surprise may be Purdue, though their success against top 5 teams has been well chronicled.

The Best Underdogs

Several things can be gleaned from this data.


  • For starters, the teams that pull off the most upsets often have elite rivals and/or division foes giving them more opportunities to pull off an upset: Stanford has Oregon, LSU & Auburn have Alabama, and Oklahoma State & Texas have Oklahoma.
  • Secondly, and similarly, more opportunities = more success. Notably, only 2 non-P5 teams appear on the good lists: Boise State and BYU, a perennial Group of 5 contender and a future Power 5 team that has been playing at a Power 5 level for years.
  • Third, LSU is the Most Chaotic Team of the Modern Era. The Tigers were at or near the top of both: teams being upset and teams winning the upsets.


That concludes part 2. In the next few days, I will try to upload a list of all teams' upset stats in a searchable table. Until then, enjoy the chaos of college football.

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